Applied Australian Change-Point Analysis: Before the Shark Gets Jumped?

Ok I saw the (in)famous Season 5 Episode 3 “Jump the Shark” episode of Happy Days (when Fonzie water skiis over a shark pool) when I was 18 back in 1977, and hated it.

Definitely Uncool.
But one Saturday morning a month or two ago I saw it again and loved it. It’s wild! It’s glorious!

The term has come to mean the point at which a TV series goes down hill, when the wolf becomes a dog, to riff on a previous post.

Anyhow, Australia’s Professor Kerrie Mengersen and Dr Hassen Assareh have developed a snazzy new Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure for working out the change-point in a process, specifically the point where a key change happened to a hospital patient’s condition for example. Helping to identify the ‘why’, as well as the ‘when’.

It’s a great idea and yet another instance of how Statistics can help save the world, again!